Cutting meat production and consumption by 30 percent would help to reduce carbon emissions and improve health in the most meat-loving nations, scientists said on Wednesday.

    Using prediction models, British and Australian researchers found that improving efficiency, increasing carbon capture and reducing fossil fuel dependence in farming would not be enough to meet emissions targets.

    But combining these steps with a 30 percent reduction in livestock production in major meat-producing nations and a similar cut in meat-eating, would lead to "substantial population health benefits" and cut emissions, they said.

    The study found that in Britain, a 30 percent lower intake of animal-source saturated fat by adults would reduce the number of premature deaths from heart disease by some 17 percent -- equivalent to 18,000 premature deaths averted in one year.

    In Sao Paulo, Brazil, it could mean as many as 1,000 premature deaths averted in a year, they said.

    According to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, 18 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions are from meat production and experts say rising demand for meat, particularly in countries with growing economies, could drive livestock production up by 85 percent from 2000 levels by 2030.

    The scientists said global action was needed to maximize the benefits of cutting meat production and consumption, and that the environmental advantages "may apply only in those countries that currently have high production levels."

    The study was published in The Lancet medical journal as part of a series in climate change and health ahead of the Copenhagen global climate summit scheduled next month.

    In a second study, British scientists found that increased walking and cycling, and fewer cars, would have a much greater impact on health than low-emission vehicles in rich and middle-income countries.

    Andrew Haines, director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and head of the research series, said delegates at Copenhagen needed "to understand the potential health impacts of their plans."

    科學(xué)家于本周三稱，如果將最愛(ài)食肉國(guó)家的肉類生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)量減少30%,那么將有助于減少碳排放和改善人們健康。

    英國(guó)和澳大利亞的研究人員通過(guò)使用預(yù)測(cè)模型進(jìn)行研究后發(fā)現(xiàn)，僅靠提高能源使用率、增加碳收集以及降低農(nóng)業(yè)對(duì)礦物燃料的依賴還不足以實(shí)現(xiàn)減排目標(biāo)。

    但研究人員稱，如果在此基礎(chǔ)上將肉類主要生產(chǎn)國(guó)的家畜產(chǎn)量和肉類消費(fèi)分別降低30%,則可"極大增進(jìn)人們的健康",同時(shí)減少碳排放。

    研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，在英國(guó)，如果成年人攝入的動(dòng)物飽和脂肪量減少30%,那么因心臟病而早逝的病例數(shù)可減少17%,相當(dāng)于一年避免1.8萬(wàn)例早死病例。

    研究人員稱，在巴西圣保羅市，這意味著每年可避免一千個(gè)早死病例。

    聯(lián)合國(guó)糧農(nóng)組織的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，18%的溫室氣體排放來(lái)自于肉類生產(chǎn)。專家稱，到2030年，不斷增長(zhǎng)的肉類需求，尤其是發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體的肉類需求，將推動(dòng)家畜產(chǎn)量在2000年的基礎(chǔ)上增長(zhǎng)85%.

    科學(xué)家表示，世界各國(guó)需采取行動(dòng)，將減少肉類生產(chǎn)消費(fèi)的益處最大化，由此產(chǎn)生的環(huán)境優(yōu)勢(shì)"可能只適用于目前肉類生產(chǎn)量較高的國(guó)家".

    該研究報(bào)告在《柳葉刀》醫(yī)學(xué)期刊上發(fā)表，在下月的哥本哈根全球環(huán)境峰會(huì)召開(kāi)前，該雜志刊發(fā)了一系列有關(guān)氣候變化與健康的文章。

    在另一項(xiàng)研究中，英國(guó)科學(xué)家發(fā)現(xiàn)，在富裕和中等收入國(guó)家，多走路騎車、少開(kāi)車對(duì)于健康的益處比乘坐低排放量的交通工具要大很多。

    該系列研究的負(fù)責(zé)人、倫敦衛(wèi)生與熱帶醫(yī)學(xué)院主任安德魯？海恩斯稱，哥本哈根峰會(huì)的與會(huì)代表們需"認(rèn)清他們制定的計(jì)劃對(duì)于健康的潛在影響".